by Shantilal P. Bhagat

Climate is the average weather of a given area over an extended period of time. One of the foundations of human societies and economies is a stable climate. The Earth’s climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy from the sun. This energy arrives mainly in the form of visible light. Ever since life first appeared, natural emissions of water vapor, carbon dioxide and other gases have helped maintain the temperature of the Earth within a range at which life can exist. They act like a glass greenhouse to trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere, as an essential part of keeping the planet warm and habitable. But global warming gets dangerous when the greenhouse we live in gets so hot that it affects the Earth’s natural climate system, causing oceans to swell, storms to brew, glaciers to melt, and tropical diseases to spread.

The sun’s rays cut through outer space and reach the Earth’s atmosphere—a twelve-mile-thick blanket of natural greenhouse gases (principally water vapor, as well as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons) that maintain the Earth’s average temperature at around 60 degrees Fahrenheit. Approximately one-third of that incoming solar radiation ricochets off clouds and the Earth’s surface back into space; the balance penetrates the atmosphere and is absorbed into the Earth’s natural "sinks"—oceans, forests, and soil. There, heat energy is generated, which radiates back into space. And in the form of heat, rather than solar radiation, some of the energy can now be trapped by greenhouse gases.

During the last century, we humans have increasingly burned fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and taken other actions (e.g., production of energy, destruction of forests) that have produced an excess of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The resulting unnatural increase of greenhouse gases traps more heat going out than is naturally the case. Over the last century, humans have significantly altered the chemistry of the air: The level of carbon has increased by 33 percent, the level of nitrous oxide by 19 percent, and the level of methane by 100 percent. As a result the planet is heating up fast.

Simply limiting the emission of greenhouse gases at current levels will not remedy the problem, because these heat trapping gases survive in the atmosphere for centuries. Instead, the world must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to forestall the devastating consequences of global warming.

While the world’s climate has always varied naturally, the vast majority of scientists now believe that rising concentrations of "greenhouse gases" in the Earth’s atmosphere, resulting from economic and demographic growth over the last two centuries since the industrial revolution, are overriding this natural variability and leading to irreversible climate change. In 1995, the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that "the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate." The Report projected that the world could warm up by as much as 3.5 degrees (6 degrees F) by 2100, the fastest rate of change since the end of the last Ice Age, and that global mean sea levels would rise by between 15 and 95 centimeter by 2100, flooding many low-lying coastal areas. Changes in rainfall patterns are also predicted, increasing the threat of drought, floods, of intense storms in many regions. The ten hottest years in history have all occurred since 1990. Global warming is already here.

The Third Assessment report of the IPCC released last year states that the global mean surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 1.5 to 6 degrees Centigrade (2.7 to 11 degrees F) by 2100. This is substantially more than the estimated 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit projected in its second report. "These projected global-average temperature changes would be greater than recent natural fluctuations and would also occur at a rate significantly faster than observed change over the last 10,000 years," said the third report.

The IPCC report also states that the land areas are warming more than the oceans and the last two decades were the hottest of the last century. The three warmest years during the last one hundred years have all occurred in the 1990s and the twelve warmest years have all occurred since 1983. (See box for more details).

In addition there is evidence that precipitation patterns are changing, that the sea level is rising, that glaciers are retreating worldwide, that the Arctic sea ice is thinning, and that the incidence of extreme weather events is increasing in some parts of the world. Rise of the sea level by as much as a meter by the end of the century would mean the disappearance of entire island nations, and the flooding of coastal zones.

There are many other dangers too. Global warming could affect ocean currents that regulate the temperatures of particular regions.

Extreme weather patterns such as hurricanes are predicted to become more frequent. Global warming could lead to forest destruction and species extinction as habitats change. Deserts will spread. Regional climactic variations, according to IPCC, could lead to drought and famine in many parts of the world. The UN has even warned that, during this century, nations could be going to war over scarce water supplies.

Put simply, humanity is conducting a gigantic scientific experiment with the planet, and the consequences could be disastrous. What is the global community’s response?

Increasing scientific evidence of human interference with the climate system, coupled with growing public concern over global environmental issues, began to push the climate change onto the political agenda in the mid-1980s. Recognizing the needs of policy makers for authoritative and up-to-date scientific information, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UN Environmental Program (UNEP) established the IPCC.

In 1990, the IPCC issued its First Assessment Report, confirming that climate change was indeed a threat and calling for a treaty to address the problem.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted by consensus on May 9, 1992 by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC). The Convention was opened for signature at the Earth Summit on June 4, 1992, and came into force on March 21, 1994. Today, 185 governments and the European Community are Parties to the Convention. To become a Party, a country must ratify, accept, approve, or accede to, the Convention. Parties meet regularly at the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) to review the implementation of the Convention and continue talks on how best to tackle climate change.

The Convention set an "ultimate objective" of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at safe levels. Such levels, which the Convention does not quantify, should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. To achieve this objective, all countries have a general commitment to address climate change, adapt its effects, and report on their actions to implement the Convention. The Convention then divides countries into two groups: those listed in its Annex I (known as "Annex I Parties") and those that are not so listed (so called "non-Annex I Parties").

The Climate Change Secretariat's web site (www.unfccc.de) is the principal source of information on the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the continuing process of negotiations.

When governments adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992, they recognized that it could be a launching pad for stronger action in the future. By establishing an ongoing process of review, discussion, and information exchange, the Convention makes it possible to adopt additional commitments in response to changes in scientific understanding and in political will.

At the first COP held in Berlin, Germany, in 1995, Parties decided that the specific commitments in the Convention for Annex I Parties were not adequate. They therefore launched a new round of talks to decide on stronger and more detailed commitments for these countries. After two and a half years of intense negotiations, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted at COP3 on 11 December 1997.

The Kyoto Protocol commits Annex I Parties to individual, legally binding targets to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, adding up to a total cut of at least 5 percent from 1990 levels in the period 2008-2012. The individual targets for Annex I Parties are listed in the Protocol’s Annex B, and range from a 8 percent cut for the European Union and several other countries, to a 10 percent increase for Iceland.

The targets cover emissions of the six main greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).

Some specific activities in the land use change and forestry sector (namely, afforestation, deforestation and reforestation) that emit or remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are also covered. All changes in emissions, and in removals by so-called "sinks," go into the same basket for accounting purposes.

The Protocol also establishes three innovative "mechanisms," known as joint implementation, emissions trading and the clean development mechanisms, which are designed to help Annex I Parties reduce the costs of meeting their emissions targets by achieving or acquiring reductions more cheaply in other countries than at home.

The clean development mechanism also aims to assist developing countries in achieving sustainable development by promoting environmentally friendly investment in their economies from industrialized country governments and businesses. However, while these mechanisms were agreed in principle in the Protocol, their operational details were to be fleshed out at future meetings of the Conference of Parties.

At COP4 in 1998, Parties agreed to a program of work ("the Buenos Aires Plan of Action") to reach agreement on these various issues, to be completed by COP6 in November 2000.

The Kyoto Protocol was opened for signature between 16 March 1998 and 15 March 1999 and 84 countries signed it during that period, including all but two Annex I Parties. Signing the Protocol indicates their acceptance of the text and intent to become Parties to it (states that did not sign may also become Parties).

COP6 held in The Hague, November 2000, failed to reach an agreement. The negotiations were continued in Bonn in July 2001 and an agreement was reached without the participation of the United States of America. The Bonn Agreements were taken up for further work at COP7 in Marrakech, Morocco, October 29 to November 9, 2001. An agreement was reached and is offered to the Parties for ratification. Details of the Marrakech agreement may be obtained from web site www.unfccc.de.

COP7 finalized the details of the Kyoto Protocol, opening the way to widespread ratification by governments and the Protocol’s early entry into force.

"After several years of tough negotiation, the institutions and detailed procedures of the Kyoto Protocol are now in place. The next step is to test their effectiveness in overseeing the five percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries over the next decade," said Michael Zammit Cutajar, the Convention’s executive secretary.

"We have also made important progress on strengthening the flow of financial and technological support to developing countries so that they can move towards a sustainable energy future. The Marrakech results send a clear signal to business, local governments and the general public that climate friendly products, services, and activities will be rewarded by consumers and national policies alike," said Zammit Cutajar.

The finalized Kyoto rulebook specifies how to measure emissions and reductions, the extent to which carbon dioxide absorbed by carbon sinks can be counted towards the Kyoto targets, how the joint implementation and emissions trading systems will work, and the rules for ensuring compliance with commitments.

Symbolizing the transition now being made to an operational Kyoto regime, the conference also elected 15 members to the Executive Board of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This will ensure a prompt start to the CDM, whose mandate is to promote sustainable development by encouraging investments in projects in developing countries that reduce or avoid emissions. Developed countries then receive credit against their Kyoto targets for emissions avoided by these projects.

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol will enter into force and become legally binding after it has been ratified by at least 55 Parties to the Convention, including industrialized countries representing at least 55 percent of the total 1990 carbon dioxide emissions from this group. So far, 40 countries have ratified, including one industrialized country (Romania).

The Kyoto Protocol is just a small start in what must be an ongoing and ever increasing commitment to reduce greenhouse gases globally. Now that the architecture of the Protocol is in place, parties have no excuse to delay ratifying it, said Bill Hare, Greenpeace climate policy director. "The Kyoto Protocol is the key to preventing dangerous climate change. The door has only just been unlocked. Now we have to fling it wide open,"" he concluded.

Many Parties wish to bring the Protocol into force in time for the tenth anniversary of the Rio Conference (World Summit on Sustainable Development) in Johannesburg in September 2002.

Meanwhile, the IPCC says the world needs to cut total emissions by between 50 percent to 70 percent just to stabilize the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at current levels. Since today’s levels appear to be causing global warming, even this may not be enough.

This is just the beginning and we still have a long way to go. Do churches and other faith communities have a role and are they willing to take the climate change issue seriously enough to help save God’s creation?

The evidence is clear. We have sent carbon dioxide (the main heat trapping gas) soaring to levels that the planet hasn’t seen for 20 million years, by burning coal, oil and gas to generate power for homes, cars and industries, and by destroying forests and soils which absorb carbon emissions.

We created the crisis; we can do something about it. There is nothing inevitable about the most extreme climactic scenarios forecast for this century. By using existing technologies to reduce our demand for energy, switching to renewable sources of power, and protecting the world’s natural areas that absorb carbon dioxide, we can phase out the use of fossil fuels and reduce our emissions to avoid the worst.

The problem is that we have very little time to do so—probably no more than 50 years—and the world’s governments have gotten off to a spectacularly slow start. The US, the world’s worst polluter, has pulled out of the Kyoto negotiations and while Kyoto is probably better than nothing, better than nothing is not enough.

We cannot afford to wait for governments to undertake the task for us. We need to mobilize our people in building a popular movement both to apply pressure for change and to deliver change in people’s daily lives. People will never spontaneously take action themselves unless they receive social support and the validation of others. Governments in turn will continue to procrastinate until sufficient numbers of people demand a response. To avert further climate change will require a degree of social consensus and collective determination normally only seen in war time, and that will require mobilization across all classes and sectors of society.

People will not accept the reality of the problem unless they see that others are engaging in activities that reflect its seriousness. This means they need to be confronted by emotionally charged activities—debate, protest, and meaningful visible alternatives. Simply asking people to change their lightbulbs, plant trees, or send in donations, however desirable, will not build a social movement.

People of faith can break the cycle of denial, and join the handful of people who have already decided to stop being passive themselves. The last century was marked by self-deception and mass denial. There is no need for the 21st century to follow suit. It is up to us all to take the responsibility for the way we live, if life as we know it is to survive in peace on this precious planet

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