by Shantilal P. Bhagat

The world's climate has always varied naturally but compelling evidence from around the world indicates that a new kind of climate change is now underway, foreshadowing drastic impacts on people, economies, and ecosystems. Levels of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere have risen steeply during the industrial era owing to human activities like deforestation or heavy fossil fuel use, spurred on by economic and population growth.

Like a blanket round the planet, greenhouse gases trap heat energy in the Earth's lower atmosphere. If levels rise too high, the resulting overall rise in air temperature-global warming-is liable to disrupt natural patterns of climate.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) drew attention in its Third Assessment Report to "new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."

Uncertainties in the process of projecting future trends lead to a wide range of estimates, but the IPCC predicted a rise of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees centigrade (2.5 to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in global mean temperatures over the next 100 years. Even at the lower end of the range the impact of warming is likely to be dramatic.

Impacts on human lives will be unavoidable and-in places-extreme. People in some areas may benefit from climate change, but many more will struggle to cope. Developing countries will suffer more than others, as their lack of resources makes them especially vulnerable to adversity or emergencies on any major scale. Yet people in the developing countries have created only a small proportion of greenhouse gas emissions.

The Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meet every year at a Conference of Parties (COP). Last year's meeting (COP 11) was hosted by Canada in Montreal November 28 - December 9. Alongside this meeting was the historic Meeting of the Parties of the Kyoto Protocol (MOP), which was the very first meeting of those who have ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

The UNFCCC was agreed in 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The Convention has a non-binding target, which calls for industrial countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. Recognizing that this would be inadequate to protect the climate the Parties to the Convention began a process in 1995 to negotiate a 'protocol' (i.e., a legal instrument) with binding targets and timetables 'as a matter of urgency'. The result was the Kyoto Protocol, which was agreed in December 1997 at COP 3.

The Kyoto Protocol supplements and strengthens the Convention, providing a framework for remedial and precautionary action to tackle adverse effects of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol has binding targets and timetables for greenhouse gas reductions. It was four years before the details were agreed and the Protocol was ready for ratification. Another three years went by before the required number of ratifications was complete.

The Kyoto Protocol requires at least 55 countries accounting for 55 percent emissions to ratify before it could enter into force. It became a reality in November 2004 when the Russian Federation formally agreed to ratify, entered into force in February 2005 and is now legally binding.

The Protocol's rules focus on:

• Commitments, including legally binding emissions targets and general commitments
• Implementation, including domestic steps and three novel implementing mechanisms (joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and emission trading)
• Minimizing impacts on developing countries, including use of the Adaptation Fund
• Accounting, reporting and review, including in-depth review of national reporting
• Compliance, including a Compliance Committee to assess and deal with problems.

Kyoto has been ratified by 156 countries. Thirty-nine of those countries, known as Annex B to the Protocol, have legally binding emission reduction targets. The USA abandoned Kyoto Protocol in 2001 and has refused to ratify it. The US shows no sign of re-entering the Kyoto process at least as long as the Bush administration is in power. The only other Annex B country, which has said it will not ratify, is Australia. Of the others only Croatia and Monaco have yet to complete the process.

The thirty-nine Annex B countries have committed to individual reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. Together those targets add up to an overall reduction of just over 5%, which has to be achieved within the first commitment period, from 2008 to 2012.

The latest information from the UNFCCC shows that the industrialized countries reduced greenhouse gas emissions overall by 5.9% from 1990-2003 (that figure does not include emissions from deforestation). Most of this reduction was achieved in the 1990s as countries in Central and Eastern Europe made the transition to a market economy. By country, changes in Green House Gas emissions from 1990 to 2003 vary greatly: from a decrease of 66.2 percent (Lithuania) to an increase by 41 percent (Spain).

A number of decisions taken by previous COPs will need to be confirmed at this meeting but the main issue under discussion will be how to decide the future climate protection after 2012, when Kyoto Protocol's first phase ends. The targets agreed in 1997 were first steps in emission control and the mounting evidence of climate change clearly indicates that much deeper cuts will be needed from 2012. Is that likely to be a problem? It could be, but the most obvious and logical way to progress would be to amend the existing Kyoto Protocol and establish 'phase two', building on the current treaty and broadening and deepening the action already committed to.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference adopted more than forty decisions that will strengthen global efforts to fight climate change. Reflecting on the success of Montreal 2005, the Conference President, and Canadian Environment Minister Stephane Dion said: "Key decisions have been made in several areas. The Kyoto Protocol has been switched on, a dialogue about the future action has begun, and parties have moved forward work on adaptation and advanced the implementation of the regular work programme of the Convention and of the Protocol."

Richard Kinley, acting head of the Climate Change Secretariat said: "This has been one of the most productive UN Climate Change Conferences ever. Our success in implementing the Kyoto Protocol, improving the Convention and Kyoto, and innovating for tomorrow led to an agreement on a variety of issues. This plan sets the course for future action on climate change."

One of the key decisions is that the 40 industrial nations that are already bound by emission reduction targets and timetables in the Kyoto Protocol have established a process to negotiate further and deeper cuts for after the 2012 expiration of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. It was disappointing that the United States and Australia which have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol could not join this effort. However, it was encouraging to see that the majority of the industrialized countries convinced by the rigorous scientific evidence and the rightfulness of their action did not let two countries derail their course of action.

A second important decision, this time including the USA and Australia, is that all countries will begin a "dialogue" about any and all possible measures to cut emissions. However, in order to meet American objections, the original plan is watered down and ends up with a non-binding process that is devoid of deadlines or specific objectives.

The "Marrakech Accords," the rule book of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, were adopted early on in the conference representing an initial success and meaning that the Protocol is in full implementation mode. Richard Kinley said, "There is now certainty for a sustained and effective global action and effective global carbon market. One of the main successes was the strengthening of the clean development mechanism. Under this unique mechanism, developed countries can invest in sustainable development projects in developing countries, helping the developing nations to improve the quality of life for their citizens while also developed nations to earn emission allowances."

The second Kyoto mechanism-Joint Implementation-was launched. Its governing body was set up. Joint Implementation allows developed countries to invest in other developed countries, in particular central and eastern European transition economies, and thereby earn carbon allowances which they can use to meet their emission reduction commitments.

A major breakthrough was the agreement on the compliance regime for the Kyoto Protocol. The compliance committee with its enforcement and facilitative branches was elected. This decision is key to ensure that the Parties to the Protocol have a clear accountability regime in meeting their emission reductions targets.

Adaptation to the impacts of climate change was also an important focus of the conference. It adopted a five-year work program on adaptation to climate change impacts. This program paves the way for concrete steps to identify impacts and measures to adapt to climate change. There were some modest steps on developing mechanisms for channeling funds to developing nations for adaptation to climate change but the management and operation of the Adaptation Fund remains a controversial issue yet to be resolved. This unique fund will draw on proceeds generated by the Clean Development Mechanism and will support concrete adaptation activities in developing countries. (More information available at www.unfccc.int)

COP11/MOP1 saw the largest involvement of faith communities of any COP to date. Over 80 persons were accredited under the auspices of the World Council of Churches and another 10-15 U.S. faith group representatives were present under the aegis of American environmental organizations. Religious participants monitored negotiations, were involved in many meetings of civil society groups, attended side events and joined the large demonstration on Saturday, (Dec. 3rd) through downtown Montreal.

The World Council of Churches four major events including a workshop on climate justice for youth groups, a bilingual service organized around "A Spiritual Declaration on Climate Change", a side event inside the conference center with a focus on a dialog between parliamentarians and religious leaders on ethics related to climate change, and the final formal role was a statement delivered to the COP11 High-Level Segment. A copy of the statement is available on the WCC web site. The WCC statement was well received and warmly applauded by the conference participants.

The exact impact of the Kyoto Protocol on global green house gas (GHG) emissions is difficult to quantify, yet it represents a first step towards limiting national GHG emissions from developed countries, and setting a framework for future-hopefully more significant-reductions leading in the long term to the reversal of current GHG growth.
As the conference closed on Saturday morning, many delegates and civil society representatives appeared satisfied that they had overcome so many potential pitfalls and actually achieved consensus. However, the simple fact that delegates agreed to embark on several processes does not indicate the substance of a future agreement. Making some progress is not the same as achieving long-term success.

Even though the outcome at Montreal exceeded expectations, the future of the climate regime is still very uncertain. The Russian Federation's last-gasp push to have a reference to voluntary commitments in the decision on Article 3.9 suggests that they have joined the group of countries that may not be willing to take on commitments unless large developing countries are part of a future deal. Other major parties, including the United States, Australia, India, and China, have begun to focus on technology development and diffusion via the Asia-Pacific Partnership, and this focus on technology is also reflected in the decision to discuss future commitments under the Convention. How this and other multilateral initiatives ultimately fit with the UNFCCC process is an issue that will need to be assessed in the future.

The future may not be clear, but at this critical juncture the Kyoto Protocol is operational and multiple paths to move forward within the UN framework have been established. Given the real risk of failure in Montreal, it is hard to dispute that the conference was a success.

A full summary of COP11/MOP1 by the Earth Negotiations Bulletin, published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development, http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop11

Caring for Climate: A guide to Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, published by the Climate Change Secretariat, secretariat@unfccc.int

World Council of Churches' Report on Montreal, http://www.wcc-coe.org/wcc/what/jpc/climatechange-cop11-report.html

Greenpeace Briefings on Climate Change, www.greenpeace.ca/climate2005

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